Data map. Photo by Zhang Jingnan, Zhongxin JingweiOil price may rise for the eighth time in the year
During this round of pricing cycle, the trend of international crude oil prices fell after rising. As of the early hours of May 25, Beijing time, the price of WTI July crude oil futures rose by 0.72 US dollars to close at 58.63 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.24%. Brent July crude oil futures rose 0.93 US dollars to close at 68.69 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.37%.
Li Yang, a product oil analyst at Jinlianchuang, pointed out that factors such as the warming situation in the United States and Iraq and the low willingness to increase production in Saudi Arabia have helped boost international crude oil prices. However, negative factors such as oversupply have also weighed on oil prices. barrel. Affected by this, the rate of change of the reference crude oil in this round is also relatively volatile.
According to the calculation of Jinlianchuang, as of the ninth working day of May 24, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 68.88 yuan / barrel, with a change rate of 0.22%. The corresponding gasoline and diesel should be raised by 70 yuan / ton. The price adjustment window period is May. At 24:00 on the 27th.
Since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 10 adjustments, showing a pattern of 7 gains, 2 declines and 1 stranding. Among them, 9 adjustments were made in accordance with the "ten working days" principle, and 1 adjustment was made due to the reduction of the VAT rate. So far, the price of gasoline has been raised by RMB 800 / ton and the price of diesel has been increased by RMB 785 / ton during the year. If this increase is expected to materialize, domestic refined oil prices will increase for the eighth time in 2019.
According to the current mechanism, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are adjusted every 10 working days in accordance with changes in crude oil prices in the international market. The price adjustment takes effect at 24:00 on the date of the price adjustment. When the price adjustment range is lower than 50 yuan per ton, no adjustment is made and it is included in the next price adjustment and accumulated or offset.
Zhongyu Information analyst Ma Jiancai said that the trend of crude oil fell sharply than expected, and the domestic oil price increase is expected to narrow. Considering that the crude oil spot is still likely to decline on the 10th working day, the rate of change in domestic oil prices will continue to decline. "Step on the line" increased.
Li Yang pointed out that, in addition to the possibility of a slight upward adjustment, there is still the possibility of stranded oil prices this round. Li Yang said that recently, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has fallen sharply. Although the rate of change of crude oil during this period has been relatively small, the exchange rate factor has been added. At present, the corresponding gasoline and diesel are still at a slightly upward level, but the trend of international oil prices on the next day is relatively The key point is that if international oil prices continue to fall, considering the inertia of the rate of change, the retail price of gasoline and diesel on the 27th may be difficult to meet the price adjustment conditions.
International oil prices may continue to fluctuate
Regarding the future trend of international oil prices, many agencies believe that the shock will continue.
Jin Lianchuang analyst Han Zhengji believes that because of OPEC + 's production cuts and the deterioration of US-Iranian relations, the market's attention has focused more on the tightening of the crude oil supply side, thus driving up the price of oil. However, as the focus of the market gradually came to the demand side, the slowdown in demand growth coupled with the increase in US crude oil production and inventories has put huge downward pressure on oil prices. Han Zhengji said that according to the current market, the uncertainty of the supply and demand balance in the next few months may be further amplified, and crude oil may continue to show a weak shock in the short term.
Zhuochuang Information also holds similar views. Zhuochuang Information believes that in the short term, European and American crude oil is in a volatile state, and the mainstream price of oil may fluctuate between 60-62 US dollars / barrel. In the face of ⎝⎛新金沙线上娱乐⎞⎠, market guidance is limited, and industry players have insufficient confidence in the market outlook. Looking at next week, the focus is on whether the US crude oil $ 60 / barrel barrier can hold up.
According to reports, on May 19 local time, the oil-producing countries participating in the production reduction agreement held a ministerial production-reduction supervision meeting in Saudi Arabia. At the meeting, Saudi Energy Minister Fareh said that there has been a consensus among oil-producing countries. Half a year will continue to reduce crude oil inventories. In addition, OPEC + will hold a semi-annual meeting in Vienna, Austria from June 25th to 26th, at which time it will decide whether to extend the term of the production reduction agreement again.
Zhuochuang Information pointed out that the situation in the Middle East is suspending, and the bulls are fewer. As the main hotspot for speculation, the economic downturn and the weak stock market have pushed the market sentiment from long to short. Of course, continued production cuts still provide a strong bottom support for oil prices.
Sang Xiao, a product oil analyst at Zhongyu Information, said that due to the favorable international oil price fluctuations and the expected increase in the retail price of gasoline and diesel, coupled with the relatively stable demand for end-use oil, the domestic market for refined oil products has risen steadily and recently, gasoline and diesel prices Part of the continuous push up action.
Sang Xiao pointed out that at present, the focus of international attention is still on geopolitics and the global trade situation, so the crude oil market may enter a phase of long and short stalemate, with shocks consolidating. In the domestic market, after several consecutive days of rising prices, the prices of gasoline and diesel in PetroChina and Sinopec are generally firm in Shandong Refinery and other cities. It is unlikely that the price will continue to increase in the short term. Gasoline and diesel prices and sales policies may trend. Stable, sporadic narrow fluctuations.
According to the principle of "one adjustment within ten working days", the next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on June 11, 2019. (Feng Fang)
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